One of the intriguing things to me about the whole Jay/Conan/Dave/etc. squabble is how folks are reacting to it, generally taking the side of the guy they find funniest and working backwards from there to explain how he's the good guy in the war.
For my part, I've long liked Conan and Dave, especially, more than I like Jay--as a host. I'm part of the minority--Ken Tucker and Patton Oswalt are others--who thinks that for all The Tonight Show has made Jay rich and famous, it's killed him absolutely dead as a stand up comedian. And he used to be one of the finest.
None of that, however, is why I've "taken the side" of Conan. If it were just that, I think I'd have said something like "Well, I do prefer Conan, but what the hell, he'll land somewhere safe and comfortable."
I don't think Jay is necessarily a bad guy, and Conan certainly isn't. NBC? Different story. They're the ones who, like the dog with two bones fabled in song by Devo, couldn't just make their choice and ride with it. They picked at one--they licked the other--they've gone in circles.
ETA: It's being reported that a "sticking point" in O'Brien's current negotiantions with NBC involves his staff. Many if not most of whom uprooted their lives to work on The Tonight Show, and who aren't getting 20-odd million to walk out the door marked exit.
According to a "source", O'Brien wants to be sure they all get good severance packages of their own.
Back to Mark, he also argues that one (BIG) reason Conan was given the time he needed to get better and fall into a rhythm on Late Night, time he hasn't been given on Tonight, is because of:
Lorne Michaels is, of course, the man who gave the world Saturday Night Live, which is one of the five-or-so greatest success stories in the history of broadcast television. Carson aside, he was the person who most intimidated (i.e., frightened) the suits at that network. And he was the man who plucked Conan O'Brien out of utter obscurity to host that show and Michaels also served as its Executive Producer. I don't know how often, if at all, he had to fight to keep Conan on the air. But I'll bet you that now and then, when someone suggested dropping the new kid, one exec there turned to another and said, "Hey, if you want to cancel him, you call Lorne and tell him he had a lousy idea!"
Now, I don't have any inside info on this but it is a fact that Mr. Michaels is uninvolved with The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien.
I have even less inside info than Mark, but I suspect he's absolutely right about this. It's been apparent to me for some time that Michaels is an 800-pound gorilla around NBC.
(That's how he kept 30 Rock on the air, I think, even though it isn't and never has been a hit.)
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