As you can see, like Fred Kaplan's book Daydream Believers, this story is a bit of a downer

Being "downers," in this context, is not a bad thing; in fact maybe I should rather say "sobering" since that has a more positive connotation.

Here's a few 'graphs by Kaplan, Mark Evanier's most frequently recommended columnist and author, with a link to the full story.

As the toll of Americans killed in Iraq topped 4,000 this week, President Bush publicly vowed "to make sure that those lives were not lost in vain"—that the war's outcome "will merit the sacrifice" and that "our strategy going forward" will be to "achieve victory."

We all wish that this were so. But what does he mean by "victory"?

...look at what is happening. First, the surge is ending this July, not because it has been successful (as Bush has sometimes claimed) but because of simple math. The five extra combat brigades, which were deployed to Iraq with the surge, each have 15-month tours of duty; the 15 months will be up in July; the final brigade will go home; and the U.S. Army and Marines have no combat brigades ready to replace them. To the extent that the surge has improved life in Baghdad, the end of the surge (the timing of which is inexorable) may make life worse.

Sobering though they may be, both this story and Kaplan's book are good and well worth reading. Because:

“When his enemies complain that all his opinions are negative, I think they forget that nowadays there is a positive value in merely standing against a current of events which you believe is moving to suicide.”

-Kenneth Tynan